What if Russia doesn't lose...

The war is at a turning point from where it could turn into a dreadful, protracted conflict that we may not be prepared for.

The West — politicians, pundits, and media — are mainly talking about Russia’s war on Ukraine in zero-sum terms. Either Russia will win, or Ukraine will win. If Russia loses the war it will be driven out of Ukraine. But we need to start thinking about what happens if Russia does not win but also does not lose. The war is at a turning point from where it could turn into a dreadful, protracted conflict that we may not be prepared for. The level of media coverage, political attention, and practical support the West is providing Ukraine will become hard to sustain if this war runs into months or years, rather than weeks.

I believe that whatever the military outcome, Putin has lost his war in Ukraine. He has strengthened Ukraine, made her president a global hero, and he’s undone all his hard work weakening both the European Union and NATO. Years of supporting the likes of Marine le Pen, Donald Trump, and the Brexiteers, both overtly and through social media campaigns, has been undone by this war. I’m sure that Ukraine will be fast-tracked into the European Union, just as Finland and Sweden will join NATO. He has guaranteed the survival and growth of Ukraine and NATO.

But however certain it is that Russia will lose this war in the long term, we may be naïve to think Russia will actually lose and end the war anytime soon. Putin’s initial plan for a short and quick invasion leading to the installation of a puppet government in Kyiv clearly failed. The withdrawal of troops from the north of the country, and from around Kyiv, was a huge relief and clearly a tactical retreat. But it also enabled him to regroup his forces to focus on the East of Ukraine.

My concern now is that the Russian army and its collected mercenaries will go in hard in Eastern Ukraine, bombing and shelling it to rubble before troops sweep in to abuse, torture, and murder the few surviving inhabitants. Putin may win a large amount of land at a very great cost; he may gain control of the Black Sea, a land route to Crimea, and access to the mineral wealth of that region. Mineral resources will help him sustain his dysfunctional economy. Land will help him cling onto power in Russia, painting himself as an imperial leader, making Russia great again. He will also succeed in damaging Ukraine, hobbling her future, and slowing her progress. It will cost hundreds of billions to rebuild what he has destroyed.

But while the West will have to pay to rebuild the West, if Putin holds onto the East it will cost Russia a fortune to rebuild there, and it will never return to any sort of functional society under Russia. It may exist just as a source of resources and as a war trophy, but Putin will have to maintain it by force. Like Crimea, it will become a huge drain on an economy that will really start to feel sanctions over the coming years.

My worry is that any sort of Russian victory in the East of Ukraine will see Ukraine’s army severely damaged and diminished. Potentially, Putin and his generals are banking on a long, slow battle in the East gradually deteriorating Ukraine’s army. From the East, Russia could then drive West, back to Kyiv and beyond but facing much less opposition.

If this is the case, we are in for a very long, slow war. Russia has a history of throwing both cannon fodder and explosives at enemies for as long as it takes to defeat them. A dictatorship can force young men to the front in a way that a democracy cannot. It can also maintain horrendous troop casualties and deaths in a way that would just defeat a government in a democracy. Russia has no shortage of men, and no shortage of money with which to pay mercenaries.

If Putin decides he will not capitulate, or settle for new land in the East, and insists on taking Kyiv, then the West needs to be ready for a long and brutal struggle that will test us all. It will mean terrible casualties in Ukraine, an ongoing refugee crisis that evolves into a permanent mass migration across Europe, long-term high inflation, and crazy energy prices.

This risks creating deep political rifts across Europe. We are united now, but if this war becomes the new normal and the cost hits voters directly there is a danger of more populist and right-wing electoral wins. The politicians supported for years by Putin may come to power, weakening the resolve we’re currently seeing across the EU and NATO.

This story reads in the news with all the urgency of a rapidly evolving situation that feels it will race towards a conclusion. But if this war runs into a year or more, how do we keep up our support for Ukraine? How do we keep the story alive, current, and relevant in the news? How do we avoid Ukraine getting pushed onto the back-pages like Syria, Chechnya, and so many other wars? How do we also avoid climate change and populism being side-lined by the war? It will be a complicated balance for politicians and the media.

The West, and Ukraine’s many other allies, have a potentially very long and hard road ahead of them if they are to maintain their support for Ukraine. It is hard to know what more we can do to stop Putin now, apart from giving up the blackmail of Russian gas and oil, and continuing to arm Ukraine. The longer the war runs, the more likely it is to spill over into a NATO country, even if just by accident. The more desperate Putin gets, the more he will shut down his country into a worsening state of dictatorship, making him ever more isolated and less answerable to anyone. That in turn opens up greater risks of his crossing a line either with nuclear or chemical weapons.

Obviously, we hope Ukraine drives the Russian army back East to its border, leaving it too badly damaged to be rebuilt by a devastated Russian economy prevented by sanctions from buying the parts it needs to fix its hardware. Or, at least Putin settles for the parts of Eastern Ukraine he already holds. But we need to brace ourselves for Putin taking the East, pausing to regroup, and then moving West across Ukraine to take the whole country. We need long term plans, individually, nationally, and regionally.